Sulla lama di un rasoio. Crescita, vincoli, prospettive: il caso Romania

For catching-up countries the convergence path is to be accurately monitored and guided to non inflationary growth, especially for accession countries to the Eu. In this paper, we argue that a strategic planning on the development of tourism for a specific region within a wider macroeconomic and institutional context may help accelerate a catching-up process provided some important risks are known and “discounted” ex-ante. In particular, the usual Keynesian multiplier and the balance of payments channels might worsen the macroeconomic framework required for Eu accession. Furthermore, tourism is founded on non-homogeneous capital with different carrying capacities that should be accurately assessed and enhanced. The main conclusion of the paper is that in order to guarantee a positive contribution of tourism-led growth to a catching-up regional economy, the supply side should keep pace with the demand side and a strategic planning by regional authorities should be implemented because externalities and public goods are an essential part of the tourist supply chain.

Nel presente lavoro, utilizziamo un modello “a lama di rasoio” per evidenziare alcune delle condizioni che consentono ad un’economia “regionale”, ossia un sistema economico dotato della legittimità di implementare politiche economiche senza tuttavia avere completa libertà sull’uso dei suoi strumenti, di sfruttare lo sviluppo turistico massimizzandone gli effetti positivi sulla crescita e minimizzandone le influenze negative.