Review of agricultural trade models: an assessment of models con EU policy relevance

This paper provides an assessment of the present state of applied modelling in the area of international trade in agriculture and related resource and environmental modelling. This review has a deliberate bias on current European policy issues. The outcomes of negotiation rounds such as World Trade Organization trade negotiations and the Kyoto environmental summit, and the prospect of EU enlargement bear implications for European farmers, related supplying and processing industries and European consumers. The assessment of likely policy impact is bound to be complex and should be supported by quantitative modelling analyses that explain the trade relations of European countries with third countries. We provide in this paper a comparative assessment of alternative modelling approaches. This includes theoretical modelling foundations, datasets employed and institutional aspects, such as model maintenance and dissemination of results. A typology of models is provided by structuring the assessment along a clear set of evaluation criteria.