The performance of Organic Rankine Cycles (ORC) plants is subject to uncertainties deriving from several factors. Such uncertainties are unavoidably propagated through the model to the outputs, affecting predictions of the commercial-scale performance and cost of this technology. The aim of this work is to analyse how the uncertainties associated with the performance of the expander, one of the main ORC components, propagate to the relevant thermodynamic and economic outputs and affect their final value. The analysis was performed for three different expander options (a single-stage turbine, a twin screw and a two-stage turbine) to generate a full spectrum of possible outputs rather than exact figures. Overall, a considerable variability of the output metrics was highlighted compared to the results from the deterministic analysis.

Di Lorenzo, G., Giovannelli, A. (2020). Probabilistic Performance Evaluation of Small-Scale Organic Rankine Cycle Power Plants for Waste Heat Recovery. In Computer Aided Chemical Engineering (pp. 1531-1536). Elsevier B.V. [10.1016/B978-0-12-823377-1.50256-1].

Probabilistic Performance Evaluation of Small-Scale Organic Rankine Cycle Power Plants for Waste Heat Recovery

Di Lorenzo G.
;
Giovannelli A.
2020-01-01

Abstract

The performance of Organic Rankine Cycles (ORC) plants is subject to uncertainties deriving from several factors. Such uncertainties are unavoidably propagated through the model to the outputs, affecting predictions of the commercial-scale performance and cost of this technology. The aim of this work is to analyse how the uncertainties associated with the performance of the expander, one of the main ORC components, propagate to the relevant thermodynamic and economic outputs and affect their final value. The analysis was performed for three different expander options (a single-stage turbine, a twin screw and a two-stage turbine) to generate a full spectrum of possible outputs rather than exact figures. Overall, a considerable variability of the output metrics was highlighted compared to the results from the deterministic analysis.
9780128233771
Di Lorenzo, G., Giovannelli, A. (2020). Probabilistic Performance Evaluation of Small-Scale Organic Rankine Cycle Power Plants for Waste Heat Recovery. In Computer Aided Chemical Engineering (pp. 1531-1536). Elsevier B.V. [10.1016/B978-0-12-823377-1.50256-1].
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11590/375890
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