In Paper 1 [Dorman, L.I., Pustil'nik, L.A., Sternlieb, A., Zukerman, I.G. Forecasting of Radiation Hazard: 1. Alerts on Great FEP Events Beginning; Probabilities of False and Missed Alerts; on-Line Determination of Solar Energetic Particle Spectrum by using Spectrographic Method, (Paper - COSPAR, PSW1-0022-04, This Issue, 2005) it was described the behavior of programs ‘‘FEP-Search’’ and ‘‘FEP-Research/Spectrum’’ estimating, on the basis of on-line one-minute NM data, the beginning of event and FEP spectrum out of the Earth's magnetosphere. We show that after these two steps it is possible to determine the time of ejection, diffusion coefficient in the interplanetary space, and energy spectrum at the source of FEP. We consider the following possibilities: (1) one of the above parameters is unknown; (2) two parameters are unknown; (3) all three parameters are unknown. We show that in the first case it is necessary to determine the energy spectrum of FEP on the Earth in two different times and automatically, from two equations, the unknown parameter can be determined (energy spectrum at the source or diffusion coefficient, or time of ejection; the determination is done by one equation, and the other is used for control of the model). In the second case it is necessary to determine the energy spectrum of FEP on the Earth in three different times and from three equations two parameters can be determined automatically (for example, the energy spectrum at the source and diffusion coefficient in the interplanetary space). In the third case, by using data for four different times all three unknown parameters can be determined (time of ejection, diffusion coefficient in the interplanetary space and energy spectrum at the source of FEP), and one equation can be used for control of the model. We describe in detail the algorithms of the programs ‘‘FEP-Research/Time of Ejection’’, ‘‘FEP-Research/Source’’ and ‘‘FEP-Research/Diffusion’’. We show the behavior of these programs on some historical great FEP events. On the basis of these on-line programs the time of ejection, diffusion coefficient in the interplanetary space and energy spectrum at the source of FEP can be determined. To extend the obtained information to the region of very small energies, we use, together with NM data, also the available satellite one-minute data. On the basis of these results it is shown the forecasting feasibility of expected radiation hazard for computers, electronics, solar batteries, and technology in space at different distances from the Sun and at different helio-latitudes. We show that the same procedure can be done for satellites on different orbits in the magnetosphere, by taking into account the change of cut-off rigidities along the orbits (for human health, solar batteries, computers, electronics, technology). By the method of coupling functions fordifferent altitudes in the atmosphere we describe some principles of on-line radiation hazard forecasting for air-planes on regular and non-regular lines in dependence of altitude and cut-off rigidity, and estimation of shielding will be made The on-line on-ground forecasting of radiation hazard for people health and technology will be done in dependence of cut-off rigidity and atmospheric pressure. If for some cases the expected radiation hazard will be higher than some definite dangerous level, on-line special Alerts will be send. These programs are tested on some examples of historical great FEP events. © 2005 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

L. I., D., N., I., M., M., Parisi, M., L. A., P., A., S., et al. (2006). Forecasting of radiation hazard: 2. On-line determination of diffusion coefficient in the interplanetary space, time of ejection and energy spectrum at the source; on-line using of neutron monitor and satellite data. ADVANCES IN SPACE RESEARCH, 37, 1134-1140 [10.1016/j.asr.2005.03.128].

Forecasting of radiation hazard: 2. On-line determination of diffusion coefficient in the interplanetary space, time of ejection and energy spectrum at the source; on-line using of neutron monitor and satellite data

PARISI, Mario;
2006-01-01

Abstract

In Paper 1 [Dorman, L.I., Pustil'nik, L.A., Sternlieb, A., Zukerman, I.G. Forecasting of Radiation Hazard: 1. Alerts on Great FEP Events Beginning; Probabilities of False and Missed Alerts; on-Line Determination of Solar Energetic Particle Spectrum by using Spectrographic Method, (Paper - COSPAR, PSW1-0022-04, This Issue, 2005) it was described the behavior of programs ‘‘FEP-Search’’ and ‘‘FEP-Research/Spectrum’’ estimating, on the basis of on-line one-minute NM data, the beginning of event and FEP spectrum out of the Earth's magnetosphere. We show that after these two steps it is possible to determine the time of ejection, diffusion coefficient in the interplanetary space, and energy spectrum at the source of FEP. We consider the following possibilities: (1) one of the above parameters is unknown; (2) two parameters are unknown; (3) all three parameters are unknown. We show that in the first case it is necessary to determine the energy spectrum of FEP on the Earth in two different times and automatically, from two equations, the unknown parameter can be determined (energy spectrum at the source or diffusion coefficient, or time of ejection; the determination is done by one equation, and the other is used for control of the model). In the second case it is necessary to determine the energy spectrum of FEP on the Earth in three different times and from three equations two parameters can be determined automatically (for example, the energy spectrum at the source and diffusion coefficient in the interplanetary space). In the third case, by using data for four different times all three unknown parameters can be determined (time of ejection, diffusion coefficient in the interplanetary space and energy spectrum at the source of FEP), and one equation can be used for control of the model. We describe in detail the algorithms of the programs ‘‘FEP-Research/Time of Ejection’’, ‘‘FEP-Research/Source’’ and ‘‘FEP-Research/Diffusion’’. We show the behavior of these programs on some historical great FEP events. On the basis of these on-line programs the time of ejection, diffusion coefficient in the interplanetary space and energy spectrum at the source of FEP can be determined. To extend the obtained information to the region of very small energies, we use, together with NM data, also the available satellite one-minute data. On the basis of these results it is shown the forecasting feasibility of expected radiation hazard for computers, electronics, solar batteries, and technology in space at different distances from the Sun and at different helio-latitudes. We show that the same procedure can be done for satellites on different orbits in the magnetosphere, by taking into account the change of cut-off rigidities along the orbits (for human health, solar batteries, computers, electronics, technology). By the method of coupling functions fordifferent altitudes in the atmosphere we describe some principles of on-line radiation hazard forecasting for air-planes on regular and non-regular lines in dependence of altitude and cut-off rigidity, and estimation of shielding will be made The on-line on-ground forecasting of radiation hazard for people health and technology will be done in dependence of cut-off rigidity and atmospheric pressure. If for some cases the expected radiation hazard will be higher than some definite dangerous level, on-line special Alerts will be send. These programs are tested on some examples of historical great FEP events. © 2005 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
L. I., D., N., I., M., M., Parisi, M., L. A., P., A., S., et al. (2006). Forecasting of radiation hazard: 2. On-line determination of diffusion coefficient in the interplanetary space, time of ejection and energy spectrum at the source; on-line using of neutron monitor and satellite data. ADVANCES IN SPACE RESEARCH, 37, 1134-1140 [10.1016/j.asr.2005.03.128].
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11590/124071
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