Analysis of the activity pattern of volcanoes through self-organized crack networks: the effect of density barriers. An application to Vesuvius activity in the period 1631-1944

We simulated the pattern of activity of a strato-volcano by using a cellular automaton model where magma is allowed to ascend to the surface through self-organized crack networks. Magma rises toward the surface by filling connected paths of fractures until the magma's density is less than that of surrounding rocks. If magma enters a region with negative or neutral buoyancy, it cools and solidifies; as a result, the local density profile is modified, and magmatic dikes are formed. We simulated the temporal evolution of high-density pathways of dikes that magma may eventually utilize to reach the surface. We showed that if a shallow neutral–negative buoyancy zone is restored after eruptions, due to, for example, piecemeal or chaotic collapses, a characteristic timescale appears in the inter-event repose time distribution. Such characteristic repose time represents the average time that magma takes to form a high-density pathway through the less dense rock layer, and it may give a hint to predict possible eruptive scenarios. Even if the model includes many simplifying assumptions in the definition of magma–rock interaction, the results obtained from simulations are consistent with the eruptive behavior of the Mt. Somma-Vesuvius volcano for the 1631–1944 period.