The trade competitiveness of Southern emerging economies: a multi-dimensional approach through cluster analysis

The present work investigates the trade competitiveness of the new emerging Southern economies - China, India, Brazil, and South Africa (CIBS) – with respect to the main global partners. To this end, starting from the commonly held view that countries with trade patterns similar to those of emerging countries are likely to suffer losses, we propose a multidimensional approach based on cluster analysis, both crisp and fuzzy, as an alternative strategy for assessing similarity in global trade patterns. On the basis of key trade characteristics drawn from the diverse strands of trade theory, we assess the relative position of CIBS within the global trade patterns and its evolution over time. Unlike previous studies, the results of our cluster exercises do not support the hypothesis of the presence of a competitiveness threat from Southern emerging countries towards the main industrialized economies.