The evaluation of “social risk” due to volcanic eruptions of Vesuvius

A re-evaluation of the demographic risk per number of inhabitants due to volcanic eruptions in the Vesuvius area was made on the basis of the Census data of 2001. We introduced other variables (population density and number of houses) which permit to upgrade the existing models. Using the Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and particularly ArcGIS 9.0 software we have elaborated a land use map, an urbanization map and a series of new risk maps which lead us to obtain a map of what we call "social risk" due to volcanic eruptions, derived from the combination of the data used and the overlay of the maps. We have proposed an integrated model which can be easily updated to follow the evolution of the volcanic risk in the overpopulated Vesuvius area, with the aim of supporting the planning of Civil Protection and Local Authorities, for an evacuation scenarios and the possibility of taking into account the potential infrastructural damages. This methodology can be tested in other volcanic regions.