Confort 15 model of conduit dynamics: applications to Pantelleria Green Tuff and Etna 122 BC eruptions

Numerical simulations are useful tools to illustrate how flow parameters and physical processes may affect eruption dynamics of volcanoes. In this paper, we present an updated version of the Conflow model, an open-source numerical model for flow in eruptive conduits during steady-state pyroclastic eruptions (Mastin and Ghiorso in A numerical program for steady-state flow of magma-gas mixtures through vertical eruptive conduits. U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report 00-209, 2000). In the modified version, called Confort 15, the rheological constraints are improved, incorporating the most recent constitutive equations of both the liquid viscosity and crystal-bearing rheology. This allows all natural magma compositions, including the peralkaline melts excluded in the original version, to be investigated. The crystal-bearing rheology is improved by computing the effect of strain rate and crystal shape on the rheology of natural magmatic suspensions and expanding the crystal content range in which rheology can be modeled compared to the original version (Conflow is applicable to magmatic mixtures with up to 30 vol% crystal content). Moreover, volcanological studies of the juvenile products (crystal and vesicle size distribution) of the investigated eruption are directly incorporated into the modeling procedure. Vesicle number densities derived from textural analyses are used to calculate, through Toramaru equations, maximum decompression rates experienced during ascent. Finally, both degassing under equilibrium and disequilibrium conditions are considered. This allows considerations on the effect of different fragmentation criteria on the conduit flow analyses, the maximum volume fraction criterion (“porosity criterion”), the brittle fragmentation criterion and the overpressure fragmentation criterion. Simulations of the pantelleritic and trachytic phases of the Green Tuff (Pantelleria) and of the Plinian Etna 122 BC eruptions are performed to test the upgrades in the Confort 15 modeling. Conflow and Confort 15 numerical results are compared analyzing the effect of viscosity, decompression rate, temperature, fragmentation criteria (critical strain rate, porosity and overpressure criteria) and equilibrium versus disequilibrium degassing in the magma flow along volcanic conduits. The equilibrium simulation results indicate that an increase in viscosity, a faster decompression rate, a decrease in temperature or the application of the porosity criterion in place of the strain rate one produces a deepening in fragmentation depth. Initial velocity and mass flux of the mixture are directly correlated with each other, inversely proportional to an increase in viscosity, except for the case in which a faster decompression rate is assumed. Taking into account up-to-date viscosity parameterization or input faster decompression rate, a much larger decrease in the average pressure along the conduit compared to previous studies is recorded, enhancing water exsolution and degassing. Disequilibrium degassing initiates only at very shallow conditions near the surface. Brittle fragmentation (i.e., depending on the strain rate criterion) in the pantelleritic Green Tuff eruption simulations is mainly a function of the initial temperature. In the case of the Etna 122 BC Plinian eruption, the viscosity strongly affects the magma ascent dynamics along the conduit. Using Confort 15, and therefore incorporating the most recent constitutive rheological parameterizations, we could calculate the mixture viscosity increase due to the presence of microlites. Results show that these seemingly low-viscosity magmas can explosively fragment in a brittle manner. Mass fluxes resulting from simulations which better represent the natural case (i.e., microlite-bearing) are consistent with values found in the literature for Plinian eruptions (~106 kg/s). The disequilibrium simulations, both for Green Tuff and Etna 122 BC eruptions, indicate that overpressure sufficient for fragmentation (if present) occurs only at very shallow conditions near the surface.