The use of wave forecasts for maritime activities safety assessment

Wave forecasting may represent a useful tool for safety assessment of maritime works and activities. To date, wave forecasting uncertainty is usually corrected by using either the mean calibration factor or the time series method. However, within the frame of maritime work management it is necessary to forecast – with an acceptable probability of error – whether or not the significant wave height at a given location will exceed a prefixed threshold within a specified temporal window, so as to assess the safety of the specified temporal window with respect to the activity to be carried out. The present paper aims to illustrate a general criterion useful to correct wave forecast, i.e. to provide an engineering tool able to assess the safety of the temporal window needed to complete a specified maritime work. The paper provides a detailed description of the method, together with the application to a real case.