New Consistency Model Based on Inertial Operating Speed Profiles for Road Safety Evaluation

Road crashes are mainly caused by three concurrent factors: infrastructure, vehicles, and human factors. The interaction between infrastructure and human factors leads to the concept of geometric design consistency, which can be defined as how drivers’ expectations and road behavior fit. This paper presents a new global consistency model based on the difference between the inertial operating speed profile (Vi) and the operating speed profile (V85). The first is calculated as the weighted average speed of the previous road section and represents drivers’ expectations, whereas the second represents road behavior. A set of 71 homogeneous two-lane rural road segments located in Italy were used in the calibration of the model. As a result, a safety performance function based on this new consistency model was proposed to estimate the number of crashes on an entire road segment. Finally, the new model was compared with previous global consistency models, concluding that the new consistency parameter better explains the phenomenon than the previous ones. Therefore, the new consistency model is a useful tool for engineers that allows estimation of the number of crashes and incorporates road safety into the geometric design of both new two-lane rural roads and improvements to existing highways.