An approach to reconstruct the thermal history in active magmatic systems: Implications for the Los Humeros volcanic complex, Mexico

Reconstructing the thermal history in active volcanic complexes characterized by multiple magmatic events is challenging due to the limited knowledge of the nature and extent of the transient heat sources. Although understanding of the geometry and architecture of a magmatic system is of prime importance for accurate temperature assessments, it is still one of the most uncertain parameters in numerical models. In this work, we presented a methodology for thermal assessment in active volcanic systems, whereby field-based geological, geochemical and petrological data are integrated to define the transient heat sources of a magma plumbing system. This time-varying heat source conceptual model is applied in the Los Humeros Volcanic Complex, an active Quaternary caldera complex in the Trans Mexican Volcanic Belt, for evaluating the thermal footprint related to the major volcanic events. The site is characterized by two caldera-forming eruptions, the Los Humeros (164 000 years ago) and the Los Potreros (69 000 years ago) and numerous episodes of post-caldera bi-modal volcanism during Holocene period (8 000 – 3 000 years old). The transient nature of the heat sources is implemented as time-varying temperature boundary conditions and the complete temporal evolution for a period of 182 000 years is simulated in 13 modeling stages. The thermal impact due to the voluminous caldera-forming events and the later short-lived magma pockets of Holocene ages is simulated by emplacing heat sources in the numerical model distributed heterogeneously in space and active at different instants of time. The depth, volume and age of the magma pockets are constrained from geochemical, petrological, geochronological and thermo-barometric analysis of erupted material. The present temperature state obtained from this approach agrees well with the temperature data recorded in the geothermal wells. The thermal footprint of the individual volcanic events indicates that almost 80 % of the present-day thermal contribution results from the massive caldera-forming events. The post-caldera Holocene magma pockets had additionally increased temperatures locally by 10 % - 20 % depending on the volumes and ages of the magma pockets. The present-day thermal regime of the younger Holocene magma pockets suggests existence of super-hot resources at shallow depths in the southern part of the geothermal field, making it a potential site for future exploration activities.