An accurate record of preindustrial (pre-1900 CE) sea level is necessary to contextualize modern global mean sea level (GMSL) rise with respect to natural variability. Precisely dated phreatic overgrowths on speleothems (POS) provide detailed rates of Late Holocene sea-level rise in Mallorca. Statistical analysis indicates that sea level rose locally by 0.12 to 0.31 m (95% confidence) from 3.26 to 2.84 thousand years (ka) ago (2σ) and remained within 0.08 m (95% confidence) of preindustrial levels from 2.84 ka to 1900 CE. This sea-level history is consistent with glacial isostatic adjustment models adopting relatively weak upper mantle viscosities of ~1020 Pa s. There is virtual certainty (>0.999 probability) that the average GMSL rise since 1900 CE has exceeded even the high average rate of sea-level rise between 3.26 and 2.84 ka inferred from the POS record. We conclude that modern GMSL rise is anomalous relative to any natural variability in ice volumes over the past 4000 years.

Onac, B.P., Mitrovica, J.X., Gines, J., Asmerom, Y., Polyak, V.J., Tuccimei, P., et al. (2022). Exceptionally stable preindustrial sea level inferred from the western Mediterranean Sea. SCIENCE ADVANCES, 8(26), eabm6185 [10.1126/sciadv.abm6185].

Exceptionally stable preindustrial sea level inferred from the western Mediterranean Sea

Tuccimei P.;Soligo M.;
2022

Abstract

An accurate record of preindustrial (pre-1900 CE) sea level is necessary to contextualize modern global mean sea level (GMSL) rise with respect to natural variability. Precisely dated phreatic overgrowths on speleothems (POS) provide detailed rates of Late Holocene sea-level rise in Mallorca. Statistical analysis indicates that sea level rose locally by 0.12 to 0.31 m (95% confidence) from 3.26 to 2.84 thousand years (ka) ago (2σ) and remained within 0.08 m (95% confidence) of preindustrial levels from 2.84 ka to 1900 CE. This sea-level history is consistent with glacial isostatic adjustment models adopting relatively weak upper mantle viscosities of ~1020 Pa s. There is virtual certainty (>0.999 probability) that the average GMSL rise since 1900 CE has exceeded even the high average rate of sea-level rise between 3.26 and 2.84 ka inferred from the POS record. We conclude that modern GMSL rise is anomalous relative to any natural variability in ice volumes over the past 4000 years.
Onac, B.P., Mitrovica, J.X., Gines, J., Asmerom, Y., Polyak, V.J., Tuccimei, P., et al. (2022). Exceptionally stable preindustrial sea level inferred from the western Mediterranean Sea. SCIENCE ADVANCES, 8(26), eabm6185 [10.1126/sciadv.abm6185].
File in questo prodotto:
Non ci sono file associati a questo prodotto.

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: http://hdl.handle.net/11590/413219
Citazioni
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.pmc??? ND
  • Scopus 0
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.isi??? 0
social impact