A Machine Learning Approach to Fault Prediction of Power Distribution Grids under Heatwaves

Climate change is increasing the occurrence of the so-called heatwaves with a trend that is expected to worsen in the next years due to global warming. The growing intensity and duration of these extreme weather events are leading to a significant number of power system failures, especially in urban areas. This is drastically affecting the reliability and normal operation of power distribution grids around the world, with high financial costs and huge negative impacts on people's life. Typically, the response to these failure events is approached by post-event analysis, aimed at identifying the grid areas that require resources to increase the resilience of the system and prevent future outages. Nevertheless, understanding the nature of heatwaves and forecasting their impact on power distribution systems can be useful to anticipate them and accelerate a reaction, possibly avoiding negative impacts on power systems and customers. In this study, a structured method to predict distribution grid disruptions caused by heatwaves is defined. The proposed method relies on machine learning to analyze previous failure data and forecast power grid outages using operational and meteorological information. The method is evaluated using real failure data from a large power distribution network located in southern Italy.