This paper investigates the extent to which fiscal plans provide novel information to investors and induce consensus over governments’ fiscal forecasts. We exploit the mandatory disclosure requirements of the Stability and Growth Pact and document that fiscal plans are generally informative, but investors interpret their content differently. We further show that, while fiscal plans that foresee spending cuts during downturns have substantial information content, they cause opinion divergence. While these findings are consistent with recent evidence on the contractionary and uncertain effects of procyclical fiscal policy during downturns, they cast doubts over governments’ ability to anchor fiscal expectations during downturns.

Columbano, C., Bafundi, A. (2024). Information content and consensus effect of fiscal plans. ESTUDIOS ECONÓMICOS, 41(83), 93-122 [10.52292/j.estudecon.2025.4154].

Information content and consensus effect of fiscal plans

Claudio Columbano
;
2024-01-01

Abstract

This paper investigates the extent to which fiscal plans provide novel information to investors and induce consensus over governments’ fiscal forecasts. We exploit the mandatory disclosure requirements of the Stability and Growth Pact and document that fiscal plans are generally informative, but investors interpret their content differently. We further show that, while fiscal plans that foresee spending cuts during downturns have substantial information content, they cause opinion divergence. While these findings are consistent with recent evidence on the contractionary and uncertain effects of procyclical fiscal policy during downturns, they cast doubts over governments’ ability to anchor fiscal expectations during downturns.
2024
Este estudio investiga hasta qué punto los planes fiscales proporcionan información novedosa a los inversores e inducen consenso sobre las previsiones fiscales de los gobiernos. Aprovechamos los requisitos de divulgación obligatoria del Pacto de Estabilidad y Crecimiento y documentamos que, en general, los planes fiscales son informativos, pero los inversores interpretan su contenido de manera diferente. Demostramos además que, aunque los planes fiscales que prevén recortes del gasto durante las recesiones tienen un contenido informativo sustancial, provocan divergencias de opinión. Aunque estos resultados son coherentes con la evidencia reciente sobre los efectos contractivos e inciertos de la política fiscal procíclica durante las recesiones, arrojan dudas sobre la capacidad de los gobiernos para anclar las expectativas fiscales durante las recesiones.
Columbano, C., Bafundi, A. (2024). Information content and consensus effect of fiscal plans. ESTUDIOS ECONÓMICOS, 41(83), 93-122 [10.52292/j.estudecon.2025.4154].
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11590/462612
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