Time series forecasting is an important application of many statistical methods. When it is appropriate to assume that the data may be projected towards the future based on the past history of the dataset, a preliminary examination is usually required to ensure that the data sequence is autocorrelated. This is a quite obvious assumption that has to be made and can be the object of a formal test of hypotheses. The most widely used test is the portmanteau test, i.e., a sum of the squared standardized autocorrelations up to an appropriate maximum lag (the truncation point). The choice of the truncation point is not obvious and may be data-driven exploiting supplementary information, e.g. the largest autocorrelation and the lag where such maximum is found. In this paper, we propose a portmanteau test with a truncation point equal to the lag of the largest (absolute value) estimated autocorrelation. Theoretical and simulation-based comparisons based on size and power are performed with competing portmanteau tests, and encouraging results are obtained.

Baragona, R., Battaglia, F., Cucina, D. (2023). A simple portmanteau test with data-driven truncation point. COMPUTATIONAL STATISTICS [10.1007/s00180-022-01320-6].

### A simple portmanteau test with data-driven truncation point

#### Abstract

Time series forecasting is an important application of many statistical methods. When it is appropriate to assume that the data may be projected towards the future based on the past history of the dataset, a preliminary examination is usually required to ensure that the data sequence is autocorrelated. This is a quite obvious assumption that has to be made and can be the object of a formal test of hypotheses. The most widely used test is the portmanteau test, i.e., a sum of the squared standardized autocorrelations up to an appropriate maximum lag (the truncation point). The choice of the truncation point is not obvious and may be data-driven exploiting supplementary information, e.g. the largest autocorrelation and the lag where such maximum is found. In this paper, we propose a portmanteau test with a truncation point equal to the lag of the largest (absolute value) estimated autocorrelation. Theoretical and simulation-based comparisons based on size and power are performed with competing portmanteau tests, and encouraging results are obtained.
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2023
Baragona, R., Battaglia, F., Cucina, D. (2023). A simple portmanteau test with data-driven truncation point. COMPUTATIONAL STATISTICS [10.1007/s00180-022-01320-6].
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: `https://hdl.handle.net/11590/465711`
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