A Multi-source Dynamic Temporal Point Process Model for Train Delay Prediction

Train delay prediction is a key technology for intelligent train scheduling and passenger services. We propose a train delay prediction model that takes into account the asynchrony of train events, the dynamics of train operations, and the diversity of influencing factors. Firstly, we consider train operations as discrete sequences of train events and propose a train arrival neural temporal point process (TANTPP) framework focused on predicting train delays that explicitly models the asynchrony of train events. Secondly, we introduce a multi-source dynamic spatiotemporal embedding method for the feature encoder in the TANTPP framework, which enhances the capability to capture the features of train operation networks. Thirdly, to better capture the distribution of train events in the TANTPP framework, we utilize a lognormal mixture hybrid method to learn the probability density distribution of train arrival events. Finally, the experimental result on real-world datasets demonstrates that the TANTPP model outperforms current stateof- the-art models, reducing the MAE by 10.85%, the RMSE by 9.8%, the RRSE by 3.78% and the MAPE by 10.11% on average. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to utilize neural temporal point processes to enhance train delay prediction.