Carbon border adjustments or climate clubs: Impacts on African agricultural sectors under different cooperative scenarios

Despite the rapid acceleration of climate change, international climate negotiations have yet to implement effective mitigation action. This failure can be attributed to the phenomenon of free-riding behaviours and the adverse effects of unilateral abatement policies, such as carbon leakage. The introduction of a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), as planned by the EU and the creation of climate clubs represent two potential solutions. However, both present uncertainties regarding their trade impacts, effectiveness and equity implications, particularly for developing countries. The outcome of these alternative unilateral or cooperative solutions is analysed using a dynamic CGE model, with a particular focus on the EU-Africa relations and the agricultural sector. The results indicate that the effectiveness of CBAM in preventing carbon leakage and supporting EU climate goals depends on foreign partners implementing domestic carbon pricing mechanisms. Conversely, for African regions, domestic mitigation efforts and exemption from CBAM can enhance export competitiveness on EU markets while reducing global carbon leakage. Overall, the establishment of climate clubs, coupled with the transfer of technology and the diffusion of best practices in agriculture, can support developing countries and facilitate an inclusive and environmentally beneficial development transition.