Neighboring Segments Control on Earthquake Recurrence Patterns: Insights From Scaled Seismotectonic Models

Understanding the factors that influence the spatial and temporal rupture history of large subduction earthquakes is essential for seismic hazard assessment. In this study, we focus on one candidate: the interaction between neighboring asperities of different sizes and normal loads. We use scaled seismotectonic models to generate multi-cycle records of analog earthquakes. We quantify the coefficient of variation CoV of the recurrence time Rt at different points along the strike of the model. The lateral continuity of CoV measurements reveals agreement between analog earthquake periodicity and frictional segmentation. We observe quasi-periodic recurrence as well as various types of supercycles, including rupture cascades, clustered ruptures, and multi-asperity events, similar to observed behavior in subduction zones. Under certain experimental conditions, the behavior of our models shows similarity to observations in south-central Chile, where variations in normal stress, potentially detectable through gravity anomalies, can provide a basis for seismic segmentation and hazard assessment.