Explorando los componentes del crecimiento demográfico reciente de los municipios del sur de Europa: España e Italia en perspectiva comparada

Spain and Italy are two countries characterized by significant territorial imbalances in demographic growth and its components. This article aims to identify the demographic factors influencing recent population growth at the local scale in both countries and to analyze the geographic patterns of these components using spatial econometrics techniques. The data used were drawn from the Padrón Continuo (Spain) and the Anagrafe della popolazione residente (Italy) for the years 2011 and 2021, along with vital statistics and migration flows (both internal and international) for the period 2011–2020. Local rates of real growth, natural increase, and net migration have been calculated to develop a typology of demographic growth that includes all possible growth patterns based on the combinations of these components. The findings reveal that: (i) both countries share similar demographic trends, with natural increase being the main driver of population decline, while positive growth depends entirely on net migration; (ii) Spain's demographic situation is more critical and heterogeneous compared to Italy's; and (iii) real growth rates, natural increase rates, and net migration rates exhibit clear spatial dependence in both countries