L’impatto delle produzioni cinematografiche sul turismo. Il caso de “Il commissario Montalbano” per la provincia di Ragusa

The paper analyzes the impact of the detective Montalbano television series on tourism in Ragusa province. We analyze ISTAT data on arrivals and presences of Italians and foreigners from 1990 to 2008, in order to obtain the touristic density index (=arrivals of tourists/area of the considered territory) and the touristic specialization index (=touristic presences/number of residents) for the new touristic development index by Forte and Mantovani, which is conceived to measure the “touristicness” degree of given territories in comparison with others as benchmark. This index corresponds to the arithmetic average of the above mentioned indices. The results of this statistical analysis have been related to the “touristic fashion cycle” built on the lines of Forte and Mantovani “fashion cycle”. A little but significant effect emerges because, since 2000, the province of Ragusa showed a differential touristic development in relation to the touristic flows in Sicily, if compared with the period before the fiction production. Therefore, Montalbano television series has had a positive effect on Ragusan tourism. In 2007 the upward trend exhibits an interruption. In fact, the index has a downturn, although it is lower than the regional and the national ones. Thus, the economic-financial crisis does not remove the differentials emerged after the year 1999. Ragusan tourism resists in the crisis period because it has become a “classical product” (according to the Forte and Mantovani “fashion cycle” classification). The research has also considered the factors needed to obtain positive results by Regional policies for cine-tourism promotion.