La dinamica del debito pubblico in Italia: un’analisi empirica (1958-2013)

In this paper time series analyses are shown in order to study the relationships between government debt/GDP and its macroeconomic determinants (such as primary balance/GDP, real GDP, the inflation rate and the average interest rate on Treasury bills) in the period 1958-2013 in Italy. Consistent with the theory, the results reveal a significant causal relationship moving from the primary balance to the real growth rate, as well as a clear influence of the inflation on the interest rate. In contrast, the influence of public debt on growth rate emerges only marginally. Further tests have, however, highlighted a significant influence of public debt on the extent of primary balance, but also a non-negligible effect of growth rate on both public finance’s indicators. These empirical evidences can be considered particularly useful for the policies that Italy face in the new European governance, suggesting to proceed with caution in the budgetary consolidation program and giving greater emphasis on growth policies.