Five Stylized Facts on Belt and Road Countries and Their Trade Patterns

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) off ers investment opportunities for several Eurasian countries but not all of them attract investments in the same way. This paper investigates the geographical distribution of BRI projects completed between 2013 and 2020. The analysis shows that pre-existing trade patterns are related to the likelihood of a country receiving completed BRI projects. We single out and provide evidence in support of fi ve stylized facts. First, BRI countries with completed projects tend to be poorer and larger. Second, projects are more likely to occur in countries with intense intermediate trade with China. Third, the countries that received projects have more diversifi ed export structures and their sectoral specialization overlaps with that of China. Fourth, among middle-high income countries, the allocation of projects tends to favor those with high levels of intra industry trade. Fifth, among BRI countries with projects, the complexity or sophistication of the goods traded increases faster with income. These fi ndings suggest that fostering trade integration has direct benefi ts and may also contribute to further BRI investments.