Machine Learning-based Seismic Fragility Curves for RC Bridge Piers

A significant part of ongoing studies in the field of earthquake engineering is directed toward the seismic risk assessment of buildings and infrastructures at a territorial scale. This task is usually accomplished by grouping the structures into homogenous classes in terms of typology, for which seismic fragility curves are then obtained for different limit states via numerical simulations or from the statistical analysis of observational data when available. Particularly, the development of typological fragility curves for bridges under earthquake is useful for assessing the reliability and resilience of transportation networks in seismic areas and can be also effective decision-making support. Within this framework, the proposed study establishes a machine learning-based paradigm for the closed-form prediction of the main statistical parameters required to obtain relevant seismic fragility curves for reinforced concrete bridge piers. Initially, a huge training dataset has been obtained by Monte Carlo simulations and displacement-based bridge pier assessments by assuming data representative of the Italian highway transportation network. Next, symbolic nonlinear regression formulae for estimating the main statistical parameters of seismic fragility curves have been generated. With the aid of those formulae, the effort of calculating the seismic fragility curves is greatly reduced since the corresponding main statistical parameters can be directly calculated from a set of commonly available attributes. Therefore, the proposed study provides a helpful tool for the rapid preliminary assessment of damage and risk level of existing highway transportation networks exposed to seismic hazards.