Green Transition, Energy and Economic Security: An Avoidable Dilemma

Geopolitical fragmentation appears to pit climate goals against energy and economic security. Economies fear that the acceleration of the net-zero transition will shift their dependence from "brown"(on fossil fuel suppliers) to "green"(on those who currently dominate key green supply chains). Governments tend to respond either by weakening climate ambition or by pursuing broad import substitution strategies. Framing this issue as a policy dilemma can be misleading. The relevant question is not whether Europe should choose between decarbonisation and autonomy, but rather which dependencies are strategically consequential and in which areas capability building is feasible. Drawing on evidence from photovoltaic and lithium-ion battery supply chains, this analysis combines granular supply chain mapping with indicators of import dependency, technological specialisation and policy orientation. The evidence points to a marked reshuffling in favour of China, growing vulnerabilities for the EU and the US, and substantial heterogeneity across products and stages. These patterns imply that reducing vulnerability does not automatically require self-sufficiency across entire sectors. It requires product-level intelligence and selective interventions: capability building where upgrading is plausible, and diversification, partnerships or stockpiling where it is not.